Starting this morning with the wide view.
You can see convection in the Bay of Campeche
This is from Zoom Earth an awesome site.
Zooming in you see a blossoming of convection.
And the yellow circle is definitely back.
But relocated as I said it would be the other day.
20% slowly drifting and trying to organize.
Rather than showing iffy models I’m showing this grid above that is a basic 5 day forecast and you can see that any development has to fight off the strong High in the Gulf of Mexico. The BOC is actually a great place for these sort of wannabe systems to drift about trying to gain some energy and traction while cradled down in what is basically a bight where systems can fester over a few days and when the High breathes a bit and drifts back to the East or Northeast they can ramp up development faster down the road. Still the road is under construction so it’s really too soon to say what we will have if this does indeed come together.
Enjoy the weekend if you live along the Gulf Coast or any coast or even inland and keep in mind that while it’s quiet today it might not be quiet Father’s Day or July 4th or any day in between. With every day that passes we get deeper into warmer water and a more conducive environment for tropical development.
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