February 2021 America’s Monthly GDP Dropped 4%


America’s revised real monthly˗GDP™ dipped 4% in February 2021, after falling by a revised annualized rate of 2.1% in January,

America’s revised real monthly˗GDP™ dipped 4% in February 2021, after falling by a revised annualized rate of 2.1% in January,” said Professor Evangelos Simos, Editor-in-Chief, in highlights released today for the preliminary (second) estimate of monthly GDP. The amended numbers, which make the GDP aggregate, “have resulted in a downward revision of 3.6 percent points in monthly GDP from the flash (first) estimate, released two weeks ago,” Simos added.

For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-0.1%) in the three months to February 2021 from the previous period, three months to November 2020.


The latest issue of  monthly-GDP Warp Digest™ envisions a unique summary measure on the position of the economy in the U.S. business-cycle, focusing on the risk for an upcoming monthly recession, derived from the up-to-date estimate of monthly-GDP™.  e˗forecasting.com’s predictive intelligence econometric model, visualizes in real time, “… the probability for the national economy to be in recession at 9.6% in February 2021, up from 5.4% in January 2021.”  When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, it provides the first signals of an upcoming recession in the national economy.

Monthly GDP at “today’s prices,” which is officially called the market value of United States’ output of goods and services expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates in current market prices, posted a reading of $21,764 billion.  In business vocabulary, today the size of the American market for doing business is $22 trillion.

In the inflation front, the price index for monthly-GDP™, officially called the GDP price deflator – seasonally adjusted and set to equal 100 in 2012 – increased by an annual rate of (+4.0%) in February to an index reading of 116.4. In Fed-watch words, using the price index for monthly-GDP™, “…inflation for what America produces, or America buys, runs at a month-to-month annualized speed (rate) of (+4.0%),” asserted e˗forecasting.com’s Fed-watcher.

The next issue of U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final (third) estimate for February data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Wednesday,  March 31, 2021.  Subscribers receive the Digest and data history, 1959-present, one workday before the press release day.

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