TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 92L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 15, 2021…9:10 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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St. Petersburg College

Tropical systems

Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

STORM W PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:
0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

Based on updated information in climate models, my seasonal forecast may change, once I have time to perform a total analysis.

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana  Bill  Claudette  Danny  Elsa  Fred  Grace  Henri  Ida  Julian  Kate  Larry
Mindy  Nicholas  Odette  Peter  Rose  Sam  Teresa  Victor  Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

Well, the NHC did it again…Tropical Storm BILL.  Again, I won’t go into detail,however based on AMSU data from 1335Z, the system finally went fully warm core, albeit weak.  The system has been under 40 – 50 kts of wind shear today, and has been in 25.0C or slightly below SST’s.  Based on what I’ve seen, I still, in my opinion, believe the processes allowing this to strengthen are more baroclinic.  Tropical systems intensify under barotropic conditions.

Satellite loop imagery this evening indicates INVEST 94L near Africa has weakened.  INVEST 92L has not shown any appreciable change, albeit some convective activity has developed ENE of the broad circulation.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
U.S. Coast Guard
INVEST 92L LOOP
St. Petersburg College
Based on my analysis of the satellite loop, you’ll see that the circulation appears to have moved a little more offshore, rather than right on the coast.  You can kind of make out the circulation in the lower clouds.  Given that convection is now noted north of the Yucatan Peninsula, I’m not entirely sure right now, however I believe this may try to move closer to the center, and the possibility of a center reformation or relocation could occur.  Analysis of CIMSS vorticity maps seems to indicate vorticity at the 925 MB and 850 MB level has shifted further over the water today.  Based on analysis of the ECMWF and GFS MSLP Normalized anomalies forecast, both models tend to indicate development beginning closer to the Yucatan Peninsula beginning late Wed. evening, or early Thur. morning.  Right now, both models seem to be in some agreement of taking this toward the TX/LA border.

CIMSS 925 MB AND 850 MB VORTICITY
Tropical systems

U.S. Coast Guard
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST
St. Petersburg College

Tropical systems
The NHC has increased the probability of development to 80% during the next 5 days.

NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED FOR THE OUTLOOK TEXT)
U.S. Coast Guard
As of the 2:00 p.m. EDT ATCF BTK update, the following was available on INVEST 92L:
LOCATED:  19.0N;95.0W
MOVEMENT: QUASI STATIONARY
MAX. WINDS: 25 MPH
MINIMUM PRESSURE: 1009 MB / 29.80 IN
Based on analysis of recent forecast steering maps, it appears 92L is making, and will complete a cyclonic loop, before fully emerging over the water and moving in a northerly direction.  I will not be posting model guidance, as it is still all over as of this evening’s analysis.

There hasn’t really been much change in the favorable / less favorable factors this evening.  The ECMWF still indicates favorable RH values through the mid levels, indicating drier air intruding at the 500 mb level later in the forecast, Fairly high precipitable water values, and a somewhat smaller area of lessened wind shear over the system.  Analysis of the current SHIPS diagnostic report however, indicates a slight increase of shear values during the next 96 hours, averaging between 15 – 20 kts, in a waxing / waning fashion.  Outflow is still shown confined to the North and East of the system through the period.  Based on this, this could still support a weak tropical storm.  The ECMWF EPS probability forecast still indicates a high probability for a depression to form, and more of a medium probability for a tropical storm.  So, once again, we are going to have to play the old waiting game again, until we see some definitive organization and increase in convection occur, before having a better idea of how this will play out.
ECMWF RH FORECAST
St. Petersburg CollegePWAT FORECAST

Tropical systems
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
U.S. Coast Guard
St. Petersburg College
Tropical systems
ECMWF EPS DEPRESSION PROBABILITY
U.S. Coast Guard

ECMWF EPS TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITY
St. Petersburg College

Regardless of development, both models are indicating heavy rainfall totals during the next 7 days:
ECMWF AND GFS 168 HOUR TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
Tropical systems
U.S. Coast GuardElsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

St. Petersburg College

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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