TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 22, 2021…8:00 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:  8
TOTAL HURRICANES:        3
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS:  5

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

Good evening everyone,

Well, looks like HENRI is my first blown forecast for the season. Evidently he was not able to take advantage of the conditions that were shown in the shear and upper pattern forecast, or tracked outside of those forecast conditions. The conditions I posted in my synopsis, pointed to a stronger hurricane, prior to entering cooler SST’s. Live and learn. 

First, we’ll begin with satellite views of the Atlantic and over Africa
GOES 16 SATELLITE ANIMATION
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AFRICA SATELLITE ANIMATION
Mexico
Tropical Storm HENRI made landfall today at approximately 12:30 p.m. EDT along the coast of Rhode Island.  At the time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were 60 mph.

I know folks have been posting about this, and posting global model graphics up to 10 days (240 hours) out in the forecast period.  I don’t do that.  That’s why you haven’t seen me post anything about what folks have been talking about.  In my years of forecasting, I’ve preferred to stay with forecasting within the 5 day period.  However, since model accuracy has seemed to improve over the past few years, 7 days is still fairly accurate.  Once beyond this time frame, accuracy lowers greatly.

Analysis this evening of both the GFS and ECMWF global models indciate we may have development in the far western Caribbean or BOC within the next 6 – 7 days.  Having been watching model posts in different groups, models have now been consistent on this for at least the past 48 hours.  Modeling suggests pressure height falls to weak development near the Yucatan Peninsula, then steadier development once the supposed low enters into the BOC.  Currently, analysis indicates both models suggest a path pretty close to what CAROL just took into Mexico.  As of the most recent run, the ECMWF brings “it” ashore at 996mb, while the GFS suggests 992 mb.  Right now, this should be considered low confidence, until it is seen whether or not we do get development, and how well that development takes place, as to give models something to “latch” onto.  Development however, could have a decent probability, as this evenings analysis of forecast wind shear, 200 mb upper level pattern, and moisture forecast (RH) up to the mid level (500 mb) of the atmosphere, pretty much show the same favorable pattern (conditions) that GRACE encountered.  The wind shear maps I am posting will have a black circle, which indicates the close approximation of where models indicate the “center” of the possible low will be.  You will also note the large red area to the east on the shear maps oriented NW to SE.  This is an outflow jet associated with the shear pattern.  The 200 mb streamline pattern indicates the outflow pattern at that level.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY FORECAST
Rhode Island
twalsh22000@yahoo.comECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
Mexico
Rhode Island
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Mexico
Rhode Island
200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
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Mexico
Rhode Island
500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST
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IF development occurs, I do not believe at the moment that this will affect Texas residents, however residents of extreme south Texas may wish to keep tabs on the situation, in case any significant changes occur.

The NHC has an area they’re watching, and has designated a LOW (10%) probability of development.  This area has been at 10% for the past few days.  Based on a quick analysis of and ahead of the area, the cloud pattern ahead of it, based on the NHC estimated motion, indicates a stable atmosphere, and analysis of forecast shear indicates conditions may not be conducive for any significant development, if any development at all at the moment.
NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Mexico

I do have an AOI (Area Of Interest), which is a wave that exited the African coast just recently.  The could pattern is rather symmetric, although convection is limited.  It was too late to post a visible loop, however SWIR indicates the environment around this feature appear to be more favorable than the area well to the NW marked by the NHC.  Natural color imagery will show the difference, and I have an arrow pointing to the Stratocumulus cloud deck.  You’ll note the difference where the AOI is located and circled.  Currently, analysis did indicate favorable moisture levels in the mid atmosphere during the next 72 – 96 hours before this feature encounters some drier air.  The wind shear forecast indicates low shear values out to 30 hours, however the 200 mb pattern isn’t indicating any type of outflow pattern anytime soon.  I will continue to monitor this area for development during the next 48 – 72 hours.  It’s difficult in pinpointing anything with this, since models do not yet show it in MSLP anomaly maps.
EAST ATLANTIC SATELLITE ANIMATION
Rhode Island
SWIR ANIMATION
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GFS 30 HOUR SHEAR FORECAST
Mexico
GOES 16 NATURAL COLOR EATL
Rhode Island
I will continue to monitor this area during the next 72 hours for any signs of development.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

 

twalsh22000@yahoo.com

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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