TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 22, 2021…8:40 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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4th of July

U.S. Coast Guard

Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

STORM W PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill  Claudette  Danny  Elsa  Fred  Grace  Henri  Ida  Julian  Kate  Larry
Mindy  Nicholas  Odette  Peter  Rose  Sam  Teresa  Victor  Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

Satellite loop imagery this evening shows the wave we have been tracking near the Windward Islands is not as well pronounced as it has been over the past 48 hours.
TROPICAL WAVE
Windward Islands
NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)
4th of July
In the new update from the NHC, the probability for cyclone development has been lowered to 10% during the next 5 days.  Based on my analysis this evening, I concur with the NHC.  Analysis this evening yielded that dry air currently surrounds this wave.  Based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast from both the ECMWF and the GFS, wind shear is forecast to continue increasing, and reaching unfavorable levels during the next 5 days.  I will be using the GFS zonal wind shear forecast out to 120 hours (showing westerly zonal shear ahead of the wave, and will the wave will enter after 5 days.  Based on this, I do not believe the wave is going to survive to make it to the GOMEX.
GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST
U.S. Coast Guard
The remainder of the Atlantic is fairly quiet, with another wave noted far south of the Cape Verde Islands, and another exiting the coast of Africa.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 LOOP
Windward Islands
WEATHER U.S. AFRICA CLOUD TOPS SATELLITE4th of July
I am going to monitor the wave now exiting Africa, as both the ECMWF and GFS indicate shear to relax, and upper level winds to become more favorable during the next 36 – 96 hour period in the forecast.

I am going to reiterate this now, at the beginning of this synopsis.  What I am about to post, DOES NOT mean it will definitely happen.  However, there are certain signals noted in this evenings analysis, that may indicate we could see a quick spin up POSSIBLY somewhere in the northern GOMEX, or off the SEUS from the approaching front.  Right now, I did not detect a closed low in the ECMWF or GFS, however lowering MSLP Normalized anomalies are shown, along with lower shear.  Both models also indicate strong 200CHI anomalies, indicating strong upper level divergence.  Also remember, from now, until just after the first of July, the MJO forecast calls for the MJO to remain in phase 2, to phase 1, until going into the “null” mode after the end of this month.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES
U.S. Coast Guard
Windward Islands
ECMWF WIND SHEAR
4th of July
ECMWF AND GFS 200CHI ANOMALIES
U.S. Coast Guard
Windward Islands
Second, I cannot rule out at the moment, a possible development by the 4th of July weekend.  The GFS has shown “something” in the GOMEX, however has been back and forth on it.  However, I am a little hesitant to throw out the GFS model at the moment, as it performed the same way for days, then we wound up with “Claudette”.  While I believe the GFS is overdone at the moment, the ECMWF does indicate a weaker, smaller area of lowering MSLP Normalized anomalies, and pretty much with the same setup in the upper atmosphere as far as shear and 200CHI anomalies.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES
4th of July
ECMWF SURFACE WIND FORECAST
U.S. Coast Guard
Windward Islands
ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST JULY 01, 2021
4th of July
200CHI ANOMALIES
U.S. Coast Guard
Windward Islands
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY
4th of July
U.S. Coast Guard
I will continue to monitor these areas, and I will be looking for consistency, more model agreement, and any significant changes to forecast parameters over the next 72 – 96 hours

You may direct any questions this season by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening.!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

Windward Islands

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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