Late Friday’s models.
Everyone gets a chance it seems.
Also a chance it sits and spins or tries…
Shear is there.
The atmosphere is not so dry now ….
… Saharan Dust is due to move in soon.
Everything depends on where the center of Invest 90L forms and the exact location makes a big deal. It could slide up the coast not making landfall, it could criss cross North Florida or continue to loop in circles off the coast. The GFS currently takes it into the Gulf of Mexico and makes it south of 25North at some point whereas other models take it up the coast. Saharan Dust is moving into the vicinity of Florida and Invest 90L in the next few days so SAL could get a vote in it’s development. The Gulfstream is a huge factor IF it stays over the Gulfstream as the water there is warm and the curve of the coast helps something form and usually move up the coast.
This is your typical July tropical disturbance. Sometimes they do not get a name but remain a tropical depression and head towards South Carolina after terrorizing Florida beaches. But this year the NHC seems more fast to upgrade something to a TS rather than keep it at TD strength. Most models keep this on the weak side but they do show development of sorts.
It has a short window before shear gets stronger and/or SAL moves in for a stay so will see what it does tomorrow. Expect surprises that would be my thought always with messy coastal lows.
Compare and contrast this with Saturday’s.
We have a small elongated center…
..and a cross like feature off the Cape.
Despite what people say online.
It has a sense of a shape.
It’s messing up the atmosphere….
You can see where banding could happen.
And how it could wrap.
But will it?
There’s a plethora of models and floaters.
I’ll update Saturday Night late.
Going away tonight for a family dinner.
Be back Saturday Night.
Invest 90L off the SE Coast. 30% Friday AM
Invest 90L has been tagged off the coast of Florida just to the SE of Georgia. The problem with the models is there is currently a vast array of solutions. There is also a possibility one center could develop out of this and another area be left behind. Old dead fronts are common instigators of tropical trouble, however the trouble is they can often produce multiple centers within a developing area of low pressure so it will take a while to see which area wins out. The location of that center, if it develops, will dictate if this is a coastal cruiser or does it suddenly veer off towards Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.
So what do you do? If you live in Florida you already know the chances of rain are up and the colors on the radar are exploding everywhere. This is typical for a rainy season pattern in Florida as any visiting troublemaker amps up the moisture. But there’s a difference between rain and an organized low pressure system with a center. Can 90L develop into Fred? Well if anything develops it should be Fred as it’s the only game in town currently as the tropical Atlantic is dead, dry and taking it’s time to ramp up into Prime Time later in August and September.
The water over the Gulfstream is warm and water temperatures are hot. It’s in an area of frequent tropical development in July. the negatives are shear that is there currently and will dog the Invest as the pluses and minuses become a mathematical equation. Right now the odds are 30%. That should rise over the next day or so as it’s now an Invest but does it get the name FRED? Time will tell.
I’ll update later today. Once something is tagged as an Invest it investigates as that is the purpose of an Invest to investigate it’s chances for development. There are more complex ways of studying it and models start running every few hours offering new solutions or honing in on the real track and intensity.
Again time will tell. The good news is you have plenty of time to prepare for it and the other storms of 2021 so you know what your “to do list” is and means anything you need to do for Fred or any real strong hurricanes in 2021 is to get it done. Meanwhile have fun. Oh and as for the Carolinas this is not a for sure Florida system it could loop around with a messy center (if it develops) and loop back up the coast as a coastal cruiser as currently the majority of the models support. Again models flip flop until a real center forms. Can one form out over the Gulfstream? Very possibly.
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram